Preliminary Redistricting Maps are out today (SD ROSTA)

Last January 31,  SD Rostra foresaw a Republican takeover chance in  mid-county’s 39th State Senate District.  That prediction looks pretty good in the preliminary maps (see above) prepared this week by the State Redistricting Commission’s staff.  The area now served by Chris Kehoe would add Rep. strongholds like Rancho Bernardo, Penasquitos, San Carlos, Tierrasanta, and Scripps Ranch. The maps also seem to show El Cajon, La Mesa and a chunk of Spring Valley going to SD 39 as well!  Meanwhile a few strongly Democratic Midtown neighborhoods are removed.  Oops!

The State Redistricting Commission will view these draft maps drawn by their staff this week.  View all of them here for the entire state: http://wedrawthelines.ca.gov/meeting_handouts.html

If they are adopted (no certainty!) here’s how they appear to affect North County’s Assembly districts.  Caveat:  These analyses are written on the fly, and the Maps may well be changed later.

First,  the COASTAL District:  Runs north/south from Oceanside to Carlsbad to Encinitas and Solana Beach, also Vista to the east.  That means recent  State Veterans Secretary Rocky Chavez of Oceanside competing with legislative aide and ex-school board member Sherry Hodges of Encinitas for the GOP nod to succeed Martin Garrick.

 

If the preliminary California Staff-prepared maps stand up, here are the remaining SD County Assembly maps, and they all spell T-R-O-U-B-L-E for Assemblyman Martin Block (D), and an OPPORTUNITY for Republicans to win a Coastal district from Democrats. http://wedrawthelines.ca.gov/meeting_handouts.html

Block faces 3 options: (1) stay in his current East SD home and challenge popular GOP incumbent Brian Jones in a district based on La Mesa, El Cajon, Santee and Lakeside.  (2)  follow the bulk of AD 78′s population to the South Bay, leaving behind heavily Democratic East SD city precincts (3) Head West to an open Coastal seat and face a “Republican to be Named Later” in a toss-up district.  No matter which choice he makes, Block faces a much tougher race in 2012.

Next August the voter-approved  ’Cititzens Redistricting Commission’ will release  newly-drawn maps for all state Senate, Assembly and Congressional districts.  This is your Distant Early Warning that senate seat 39  [Kehoe, term-limited]  will likely see the biggest changes in San Diego county,  and they are certain to make it competitive for Republicans again.

The next GOP senator from the 39th may be living in Poway, Rancho Bernardo, San Carlos, Tierrasanta, Scripps Ranch, Penasquitos, Del Cerro or Encinitas….. none of which are now in the 39th district ! …… So if you know a good GOP candidate in those places, let ‘em know NOW…their ship may be about to come in, if they are there to board it!  If Rostra readers have candidate ideas, but don’t want to post them here, you can write me directly at:  YourElectionVictory@hotmail.com

 

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